Page 33 - IB January 2022

Climate Change Climate Change

Overall, the report argues that US global security interests
will be challenged, because adverse climate impacts are felt
most in poor, developing nations: “Scientific forecasts indicate
that intensifying physical effects of climate change out to 2040
and beyond will be most acutely felt in developing countries,
which we assess are also the least able to adapt to such
changes. These physical effects will increase the potential for
instability and possibly internal conflict in these countries,
in some cases creating additional demands on US diplomatic,
economic, humanitarian, and military resources.”

Australia and New Zealand step up
For many years, the Australia and New Zealand governments
have been reluctant to integrate climate change into their
strategic and security policies, but are now slowly beginning to
follow the lead of their larger ANZUS partner.
In Nauru in 2018, the Pacific Islands Forum adopted the Boe
Declaration which states that, amongst many transnational se-
curity challenges, “climate change remains the single greatest
threat to the livelihoods, security and wellbeing of the peoples
of the Pacific.”
ANZUS defence and security agencies are now grappling with
this focus on climate change rather than China as the region’s
central security threat. There’s a long way to go, however,
until this change is reflected in budget allocations, staffing and Avril Haines
policy development. {
The latest ‘Defence Assessment 2021’ from the New Zealand
Ministry of Defence worries about the “increased crowding,
complexity and competition” in the South Pacific. With a Australia’s climate and security failure.”
major focus on China (though the country is rarely mentioned In a public critique of the Coalition, Admiral Barry stated:
by name), the NZ assessment identifies two key challenges for “It is perplexing that a government that claims to be strong on
NZ Defence Force: “strategic competition” and “the impacts security issues is weak, and even silent, on the greatest threat
of climate change.” to the future security, safety and well-being of all Australians.
The new NZ defence assessment stresses that climate Our closest allies, including AUKUS partners the USA and UK,
change is the major security threat for the region: “The direct have recognised and are acting to mitigate the impacts of
human security impacts of climate change will increasingly climate change on the security of their people and on peaceful
intersect with and exacerbate national security challenges. For relations between nations, yet our own government is falling
some countries, including in the Pacific, the threat is existen- behind.”
tial.” In a speech on 7 December, the Shadow Minister for Defence
In contrast, the Coalition government in Australia under Brendan O’Connor, of the opposition Australian Labor Party
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has resisted serious analysis of (ALP), highlighted the need for more climate risk assessment.
the climate/security nexus. The government failed to act on “Our AUKUS partners know that climate change increases
the recommendations of a 2017 Senate inquiry into the “Na- the risk of conflict,” he said. “Our Indo-Pacific neighbours
tional Security Implications of Climate Change.” At a recent know this, and will understand how a concerted and coordi-
Senate Estimates hearing, officials revealed that Australia’s nated AUKUS effort in our region must include climate change
Treasury has not modelled the effects of climate change and concerns. Australia is unable to achieve lasting national secu-
emissions reductions on the nation’s economy for many years. rity without adequately addressing climate change.”
Last month, the former Chief of the Australian Defence O’Connor announced that, if the ALP wins the looming
Force, Admiral Chris Barrie (RAN retired) argued that “climate national elections (which must be held by May 2022), a Labor
change remains the most significant threat to our security, Government in Australia will “undertake an urgent Climate
and we must now act accordingly with the necessary scale and Risk Assessment and Regular National Climate Risk Assessments
speed of action.” and build an Australian National Prevention and Resilience
Speaking on behalf of the Australian Security Leaders Cli- Framework.”
mate Group (ASLCG), Admiral Barrie highlighted the group’s
September 2021 report “Missing in Action – responding to nicmac3056@gmail.com

Islands Business, January 2022 33