Page 32 - IB January 2022

Climate Change Climate Change

US LABELS PACIFIC ISLANDS A

CLIMATE “REGION OF CONCERN”

By Nic Maclellan lenged by Asian and European fishing fleets and IUU fishing:
“Climate change also may hasten the collapse of commercial
A major assessment by US intelligence agencies lists the fisheries that already are under severe strain from overfish-
Pacific islands as one of two “regions of great concern” in the ing, according to the Pacific Community, which will harm local
world, because of the adverse effects of climate change. diets and economies. Regional fish consumption is three-to-five
The assessment of the danger to the Pacific comes in a new times the global average, foreign fishing licenses make up a
National Intelligence Assessment, entitled “Climate Change large share of government revenue, and onshore processing
and International Responses - Increasing Challenges to US provides jobs, according to a UN study.”
National Security Through 2040.”
The report is issued by the US National Intelligence Council Global tensions
(NIC). Experts at the NIC collate information and analysis from Overall, the US intelligence assessment, released late last
17 US intelligence agencies, ranging from the Central Intel- year, presents a gloomy picture of the global state of play.
ligence Agency (CIA) and National Security Agency (NSA) to the This concern has been exacerbated by the lack of progress
intelligence branches of the Federal Bureau of Investigations at COP26 around areas of concern for PSIDS, such as climate
(FBI), Department of Defence, Homeland Security and other finance and a new loss and damage facility.
government agencies. The first crucial finding of the intelligence analysts is that
The NIA assessment stresses: “We assess that climate change climate change is the central challenge to geopolitical stabil-
will increasingly exacerbate risks to US national security inter- ity on a global scale, related to the slow progress in forging
ests, as the physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions consensus at COP meetings.
mount about how to respond to the challenge.” The NIA states: “Geopolitical tensions are likely to grow as
A new US Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, was countries increasingly argue about how to accelerate the re-
appointed last January as the Biden administration came to ductions in net greenhouse gas emissions needed to meet Paris
office. As it seeks allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific region, Agreement goals. Debate will center on who bears more re-
the Biden administration recognises the importance of climate sponsibility to act and to pay - and how quickly - and countries
policy for many developing nations. The new climate NIA will compete to control resources and dominate new technolo-
reflects a new response to the longstanding call from Forum gies required for the clean energy transition.”
Island Countries to link climate change and security concerns. In a worrying sign, the assessment says that existing COP
policies are not driving decarbonisation programs fast enough,
Regions of vulnerability and that global temperatures will rise to 1.5 degrees above
The US intelligence community has identified eleven coun- pre-industrial levels by 2030: “The current pace of transi-
tries and two regions of “great concern from the threat of tion to low- or zero-emission clean energy sources is not fast
climate change.” While the individual countries are located in enough to avoid temperatures rising above the Paris goal of
South Asia, East Asia and Central America, the Pacific islands 1.5˚C.”
are identified as one of the two vulnerable regions, along with It notes: “Given current government policies and trends in
sub-Saharan Africa. technology development, we judge that collectively countries
The NIA report states: “Climate change is also likely to are unlikely to meet the Paris goals because high-emitting
increase the risk of instability in countries in Central Africa countries would have to make rapid progress toward decar-
and small island states in the Pacific, which clustered together bonising their energy systems by transitioning away from fossil
form two of the most vulnerable areas in the world.” fuels within the next decade, whereas developing countries
The report details the particular challenge for Pacific Small would need to rely on low-carbon energy sources for their
Island Developing States (PSIDS): “Low-lying Pacific Islands are economic development.”
highly vulnerable to climate change because of their mini- The US intelligence report echoes concerns long expressed
mal adaptive capacity and high exposure to tropical storms by Forum Island Countries that use of coal and other fossil
and rising sea levels. Although no island nation is forecast to fuels needs to be reduced: “Global energy demand is expected
disappear by 2040, about 20% of their landmass is projected to to increase by more than 18% by 2040, according to the Inter-
face annual wave flooding from higher seas that will damage national Energy Agency’s (IEA) modelling of current policies,
infrastructure and threaten food and water security because of with fossil fuel use also growing and continuing to account
saltwater intrusion of groundwater resources.” for only a modestly smaller share of supply even though solar,
It also notes that way that warming oceans and ocean wind, and other clean sources will grow more quickly, particu-
acidification will affect tuna stocks in the region, already chal- larly after 2030.”

32 Islands Business, January 2022