Page 29 - IB AUG 2019

Climate Change

restrial and marine.
The consequences of atmospheric and
oceanic warming and acidification cascade
through and impact all terrestrial, oceanic
and atmospheric systems. The changes
are so pervasive we now use the umbrella
term “climate change”, as opposed to the
much narrower expression of “global
warming”.

Chapter 5. Implications for the Pacific,
and Beyond
The consequences are equally far reach-
ing, and overwhelmingly negative, for
natural as well as human systems. This
is so for the Blue Pacific, the world’s larg-
est oceanic continent, which is core to the
region’s way of life, shaping the cultural,
spiritual and historical identity of Pacific
peoples as well as the economies of Pacific Traditional housing in a coastal location exemplifies both the resilience and vulnerability of Pacific Islanders to
Island nations and territories. Over 50 climate change.
percent of the world production of tuna is Hindsight informs us that over recent port low carbon development and improve
from the western and central Pacific Ocean. decades, and despite the Pacific experienc- disaster response and reconstruction. As
Fish protein makes up 50-90% of animal ing some of the highest rates of sea-level a result, identification and prioritization
protein consumption in rural areas of the rise globally, over three-quarters of the of investments relate to the overarching
Pacific, and 40-80% in urban areas. Pacific 394 Pacific atoll islands included in a study goal of resilient development, where the
Ocean-based fishing and tourism alone were stable in area. Importantly, nearly two goals of sustainable development and
provide USD 3.3 billion to the economies 20% of the islands increased in size, building resilience are achieved through a
of Pacific Island countries and territories, usually due to a combination of natural joint approach.
amounting to 10.5% of regional GDP. and human factors. The areas of less
But studies suggest that by 2030 there than 10% of the islands decreased in size. Epilogue
will be a 20% decline in coral reef fish The finding that atoll islands affected by The end of this climate change story
production in some Pacific Island coun- rapid sea-level rise did not show a distinct lacks a dramatic climax worthy of a mys-
tries. For 75% of Pacific Island countries behaviour compared to other atoll islands tery novel, but it does give cause for re-
and territories coastal fisheries will fail to is of even greater significance. Recent flection. A key message is the importance
meet food security needs by 22030, due physical modelling experiments of a reef of not oversimplifying, or excessively
to a combination of population growth island add credence to these findings. The politicising, the climate and related chal-
(exacerbating unsustainable extraction), experiments demonstrated that overwash lenges facing Pacific Island countries and
climate change and inadequate national processes provide a mechanism to build territories. Some have described climate
distribution networks. Moreover, nine of and maintain the freeboard of such islands change, and especially sea-level rise, as an
seventeen Pacific Island countries and ter- above sea level. Thus these islands have “existential threat” to the region, creating
ritories could experience declines of over the capability to respond to rising sea level, “climate refugees” and the need for “mi-
50% in maximum catch potential by 2100. through island accretion (gradual growth). gration with dignity”. But as new scientific
These findings can be complemented evidence comes to hand, resulting in fresh
Chapter 6. From Hindsight to Fore- by several important insights. The coastal and widespread understanding, such rhet-
sight areas of high islands, where people and oric and policy is increasingly giving way
When using hindsight to provide built assets are usually concentrated, to that of “stay and fight”. This involves
foresight it is useful to add insight as an face levels of risk similar to those of atoll relying on achieving more resilient devel-
intermediate step. This framing of the islands. Land tenure, infrastructure and opment, including through adaptation and
climate change story is illustrated by way other land uses limit the option to retreat in emissions mitigation efforts. Does all this
of an example of great importance to the the face of sea-level rise, more damaging mean that, 20 years on, Schindler would
Pacific Islands region. storm surges and other coastal hazards. have a different view of the “unfolding
And we all need to be reminded that there greenhouse mystery”? This condensed
Future Habitability of Pacific Islands are multiple determinants of atoll and high version of the story would suggest not.
The issue of the future habitability island habitability in the longer term, not While the plot has changed from solving
of Pacific islands is highly contentious, just sea-level rise. the science to clarifying island and human
scientifically and politically. A major ten- In response, the Pacific is demonstrating futures, multiple objectives, tensions and
sion exists between those whose agendas considerable foresight. For example, the manoeuvring are enduring features of the
are served by studies which invoke the Framework for Resilient Development in climate change story.
likelihood of climate-induced migration, the Pacific was endorsed by Pacific Leaders
and those who recognize the strong and in 2016, and came into effect at the begin- John E. Hay is an Adjunct Professor
enduring relationship that Pacific Islanders ning of 2017. The Framework is a global Cook Islands Campus of the University of
have with their land. For the latter, any talk first, where the Pacific seeks to reduce the South Pacific. An extended version of
about forced migration is an anathema. exposure to climate and disaster risk, sup- this article appears in our online edition.

Islands Business, August 2019 29