Page 28 - IB AUG 2019

Climate Change

the 20th century the prevailing thinking
of the scientific and wider community
was, in hindsight, overly optimistic. Since
there would be only a slow increase in the
Earth’s population, the resulting increase
in CO emissions would also be slow. The
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consequential warming would be even
slower, due to the uptake of both heat and
CO by the world’s oceans. And, finally,
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such warming would be overwhelmingly
beneficial. How wrong this proved to be,
on all counts.

Chapter 4. Win Win Turns to Lose
Lose Lose
From the 1950s on there was a flurry of
studies, catalysed by the growing realisa-
tion of the many widespread and serious
consequences of global warming. The
far-reaching significance of these findings
was facilitated by comprehensive and
authoritative assessments conducted by
bodies of independent experts, such as
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). The IPCC published its
first assessment in 1990, and continues
to report its findings on a five-yearly cycle.
The future habitability of Tarawa Atoll, Kiribati, and other atoll islands, is highly contentious, both scientifically and
In 1850 the Earth’s population was
politically. around 1.2 billion. It is now over 7.7
Climate change and the Pacific billion. This growth, along with industri-
alisation and increases in per capita pro-
A story in progress duction and consumption, has driven the
increasing concentration of CO and other
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greenhouse gases in our atmosphere.
While the Earth’s population increased
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By John E Hay common constituents of the atmosphere, 6.5 times since 1850, global CO emissions
namely oxygen and nitrogen. Tyndall went are now over 150 times higher than they
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In 1999 David Schindler, an ecologist, on to speculate that changes in the con- were back then. Levels of CO in the at-
wrote, “To a patient scientist, the unfolding centration of the former gases could have mosphere are higher than for at least the
greenhouse mystery is far more exciting an impact on the Earth’s climate. last 800,000 years, and the rate of increase
than the plot of the best mystery novel”. I And that’s how the opening lines of the is unprecedented in the Earth’s history.
wonder how he would describe the mys- story read for well over 100 years. As anticipated, at least in qualitative
tery novella today, twenty years later. Once terms, the oceans have indeed absorbed
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you have read this condensed version of Chapter 2. A New Character CO – around half of the global emissions
the updated story, you can decide if the The story line had to be rewritten in since 1800. But even this saving grace
mystery has deepened, or has been solved. 2011, when a scholar by the name of comes at a cost. The absorption results
Raymond Sorenson published an article in ocean acidification, thereby slowing
Chapter 1. In the Beginning which identified a third foundational char- the growth of calcareous organisms such
An exciting mystery begins by introduc- acter. Sorenson highlighted that in 1856, as coral, while also reducing the rate of
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ing the foundational characters. Originally three years prior to Tyndall’s first report, further CO uptake by the oceans.
there were two such characters in the cli- the research findings of Eunice Newton The oceans have also taken up much
mate change story. In 1824 Joseph Fourier Foote were presented at an annual science of the additional heat initially trapped by
pioneered our understanding of the role of meeting in Albany, New York. the atmosphere. Indeed, more than 90%
the atmosphere in warming the Earth. He Eunice Foote was not only a pioneering of the Earth’s energy imbalance between
discovered that something in the atmo- American scientist but also a well-known 1971 and 2010 has been stored as heat
sphere made the Earth warmer than he inventor and women’s rights campaigner. in the ocean. But once again, this has
had previously calculated. A few decades Her most notable achievement was to come at a cost. The additional heat in the
later, in 1861, John Tyndall identified that demonstrate enhanced absorption of radi- ocean caused 40% of the global mean
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“something” as what we now refer to as ant heat energy by CO . She also showed sea-level rise between 1993 to 2010. A
greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide (CO ), the potential for atmospheric warming due warmer ocean further slows the rate of
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2
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water vapor and hydrocarbon gases such to rising CO levels CO absorption, seriously impacts marine
as methane. Tyndall proved these to be organisms and ecosystems, and has wider
extremely efficient absorbers of radiant Chapter 3. Optimism and serious negative consequences for
heat energy, in comparison to the more From then and through the first half of natural and human systems, both ter-
28 Islands Business, August 2019