Page 19 - IB May 2018 Edition

Politics

Think(tank)ing about China

By Nic Maclellan seas citizen protection” – seen in Libya
in 2011 and Yemen in 2015 – will be
AUSTRALIAN think tanks and defence used to deploy Chinese military forces to
analysts are driving a debate on regional the South Pacific. They present this as a
security that prioritises the defence of strategic plan by the Chinese government
Australia rather than the human security to justify military deployments into the Belt and Road summit 2017 – Fiji PM meets Premier Li
of people in the islands region. Indian and Pacific Oceans. Keqiang in Beijing Photo : Govt of China
As reported in the March edition of Australia has also sent naval forces
Islands Business, the Australian govern- into the Pacific at time of crisis, to deploy engagement “is a far more extensive and
ment is striking out with new assertive- troops and prepare to evacuate Australian deeper defence relationship with those
ness in the Pacific, concerned about grow- nationals (Operation Morris Dance during countries which have a defence force.” He
ing Chinese influence in the region. This the 1987 Fiji Coup, Operation Plumbob argued that “it would benefit us to see the
has been highlighted by recent debate during the 2000 Solomon Islands crisis capability of the Pacific Island Countries’
over alleged Chinese plans to establish a and Operation Quickstep for Fiji and defence forces grow” (an interesting prior-
military base in Vanuatu (story on p18). Tonga in 2006). ity given the past role of the PNGDF and
The focus on China’s military intentions Colonel Peter Connolly, director for RFMF in human rights abuses).
comes as Forum leaders are considering a international engagement with the Aus- Marles’ speech was presented at the
new Biketawa Plus Declaration – an ex- tralian Army, has argued: “Given the Lowy Institute for International Policy
tension of the 2000 Biketawa Agreement potential for anti-Chinese riots in the in Sydney, reflecting its role as a major
which outlines the Forum’s role in region- South Pacific, the requirement for Chinese foreign policy think tank in Australia.
al intervention. The new declaration will ‘overseas citizen protection’ may become Through its blog “The Interpreter” and
be discussed at the next Forum leaders a reality in Melanesia in the near future. In a range of conferences, meetings and
meeting in Nauru, but what priority will a hypothetical development where a PLA publications, Lowy has become a key
be given to human security rather than amphibious element arrives to protect player in public debate on foreign and
military programmes that put defence of evacuees in Papua New Guinea along- security policy.
Australia at the heart of the discussion? side the contingents from Australia and David Wroe, the defence and national
Across the region, there is widespread other traditional regional partners, there security correspondent for the Sydney
debate about China’s intentions towards is scope for accidental friction leading to Morning Herald, reportedly attended a
the South Pacific. Chinese diplomats tension and suspicion of intent.” Lowy Institute security workshop the
state that investment through Chinese In response to Chinese influence, the week before his recent articles on China
corporations, combined with soft loans Turnbull government is seeking new and Vanuatu.
from the Chinese government, is simply security agreements with Forum island Other key conservative think tanks
South-South development cooperation. countries, and Australian think tanks driving the media agenda on security
In contrast, some analysts see this as are advocating new defence cooperation include the Australian Strategic Policy
part of a longer term strategy for military initiatives. Institute (ASPI) and the United States
expansion. Defence planners are required According to the 2017 Foreign Policy Studies Centre, based at the University
to look at “worst-case” scenarios, but the White Paper, Australia’s approach to the of Sydney. It’s notable that these think
latest furore over Chinese military bases region will focus on “helping to integrate tanks are in part funded by the Australian
reflects widespread concern in Canberra Pacific countries in the Australian and Defence Department and US corporations,
about declining US focus on the region New Zealand economies and our security including arms manufacturers.
and the potential for increased activity institutions.” Over the last year, the Department of
by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Strategic planners in Australia have Defence has financed the ‘South Pacific
The call for renewed Australian en- been promoting closer ties between the Fragile States Project’ at the Lowy Insti-
gagement in the Pacific is often framed ANZUS allies and Paris, even as Kanak tute. The project is headed by Lieutenant
as a policy of strategic denial, to ensure and Maohi nationalists call for indepen- Colonel Greg Colton DSM, a regular army
that island states do not provide military dence from France. The White Paper states officer on leave from the Australian De-
access to official enemies. Opposition to that one of three priorities for the Pacific fence Force (ADF).
expanded Chinese military deployments is “tackling security challenges, with a In research for the Fragile States Project,
has bi-partisan support from the conser- focus on maritime issues…In support of Colton has argued that Australia should
vative Liberal-National Party Coalition these efforts, Australia will continue to prioritise “the establishment of a Compact
government as well as the opposition cooperate closely in the Pacific with New of Free Association with Nauru, Tuvalu
Australian Labour Party (ALP). Zealand, the United States and France.” and Kiribati as a foreign policy priority for
During rioting in Solomon Islands, ALP Shadow Defence Minister Richard the Pacific.” Even though Pacific countries
Timor-Leste and Tonga in 2006 and again Marles – a former Parliamentary Secretary in free association with the US or New
in Papua New Guinea during 2009, many for Pacific Island Affairs – has called for Zealand have never taken up this status
Chinese businesses were targeted. In increased engagement by Australia in the after being an independent state, Colton
response, hundreds of Chinese nationals islands region, especially in the security has argued for smaller island states to
were evacuated in civilian aircraft. sector. give up sovereignty to obtain ongoing
Now some Australian defence analysts In a speech last November, Marles stat-
fear that the PLA’s growing role in “over- ed that the first “cornerstone” for Pacific Continue on page 22

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