Page 24 - IB October 2021

New data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study shows that Zealand occurs 14-15 years earlier (mean ag: 60 and 62 years) than in
low ambient temperature is an increasing stroke risk factor around the New Zealand Europeans (mean age: 75 years).
world. “In Māori and Pacific people, more than 60% per cent of those af-
Global warming not only produces hotter summers and extreme fected by stroke are younger than 65 years, and Māori and Pacific peo-
weather events but also colder winters, especially in more temperate ple have two to three times greater risk of having a stroke compared to
zones. These changes affect human physiology and have the potential New Zealand Europeans,” says Professor Feigin.
to acutely influence the occurrence of cardiovascular diseases such “If no urgent measures are taken to improve primary stroke preven-
as stroke. tion, the burden of stroke in New Zealand and globally will double by
While previous studies have made ecological observations of the 2050.”
effects of ambient temperature on the risk of stroke, the current study The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is the most comprehen-
is the first to show the sizeable global effect of non-optimal, primarily sive worldwide, observational epidemiological study to date, analysing
low ambient temperature on the burden of stroke. 369 diseases and 286 causes of death in more than 200 countries.
The paper, published in The Lancet Neurology, is a systematic Led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at
analysis of updated data from the GBD study on stroke, including inci- the University of Washington, with funding from the Bill and Melinda
dence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiologi- Gates Foundation, the GBD study brings together data and analysis
cal trends on a global, regional, and national level. from international researchers to help understand the health chal-
Lead author of the paper, Valery Feigin – Professor of Neurology lenges facing people across the world.
and Epidemiology, and Director of the National Institute for Stroke and Although he is based in Auckland, Feigin is an Affiliate Professor of
Applied Neurosciences (NISAN) at Auckland University of Technology the University of Washington, and principal contributor to the GBD
(AUT) – says there is increasing concern about the impact of climate study on stroke and related neurological disorders.
change on global health. For three consecutive years, he has ranked among the top one per-
The results show that low temperature now ranks sixth or seventh cent of researchers for most cited publications, making him one of ‘the
among the highest risk factors for all strokes in Central Asia, Eastern world’s most influential scientific minds’. He is by far the most cited
Europe, Western Europe, and North America – where it sits just behind scientist in Australia and New Zealand.
smoking, hyperglycaemia, poor diet, and high cholesterol, respectively. “A concerning trend we are seeing is that most countries
Low temperature falls below the Theoretical Minimum Risk Level have not achieved sufficient declines in stroke
(TMREL) with the lowest mortality. TMRELs vary by location, tempera- incident rates to offset the demographic
ture zone, and year. In New Zealand, the temperature zones are 6ᵒC to force of population growth and ageing, re-
17ᵒC and the population weighted mean is 13.4ᵒC. There are 12 differ- sulting in overall increases in the number
ent TMREL values in this country for any given year. of fatal and disabling strokes over time,”
says Feigin.
“In New Zealand, 10 percent of the burden of stroke is attributable “We now need to look at developing
to low temperature, which suggests that healthier housing – that is both country-specific and stroke type-
well insulated, ventilated and fitted with good reliable heating – could
prevent more than 370 new stroke cases each year,” says Feigin. specific strategies to reduce the burden
of stroke.”
“The estimated cost saving to the country would be $27 million.” Elevated blood pressure (48 per-
The ‘burden of stroke’ measures the impact of living with illness and cent), being overweight (30
injury, and loss of life from premature death. percent), and poor
“Over the past 30 years, we have seen a 26 percent increase in the diet (28 per-
number of new stroke cases, and a 40 percent increase in the cent) are still
number of New Zealanders living with the after-effects of the three high-
stroke,” says Feigin. est stroke risk
“There is an increased stroke burden overall, particu- factors in New
larly in people younger than 70 years old.” Zealand.
Stroke in Māori and Pacific people in New

Professor Valery Feigin
24 Islands Business, October 2021