Page 42 - IB Sept-Oct 2020

Opinion

WHO WILL WELCOME BOUGAINVILLE?

By Dr. Alfred Oehlers Most certainly, there are
sensitivities to be navigated.
The results of the historic Bougainville elections are now And some of these are purely
known. In electoral processes setting benchmarks for emula- “internal” among Pacific
tion in the Pacific, former Bougainville Revolutionary Army neighbors, such as the Solomon
Commander, Ishmael Toroama, was declared President-elect. Islands and recent secession is-
Toroama in coming weeks will form a government and lead sues around Malaita. It will be
further negotiations with Papua New Guinea (PNG) on the interesting to watch how bilat-
implementation of the independence process endorsed by eral relations between Pacific
nearly 98% of Bougainville voters in the referendum last year. nations, PNG and an emerging
For an event with such significant implications for PNG, Bougainville evolve in future,
Bougainville and the region, it was surprising to see the pau- Bougainville President-elect, Ishmael and how any such sensitivities
Toroama
Photo: Bougainville Forum
city of reactions to this occasion. At time of writing, Prime will be accounted for.
Minister Marape from PNG has been the lone exception, offer- More broadly – at a regional level – it will similarly be
ing his congratulations to President-elect Toroama and the in- fascinating to observe the evolution of regionalism with
vitation for talks in due course. But across the Pacific, there Bougainville’s emergence. Both the Melanesian Spearhead
has been a virtual silence. Why? And is this silence indicative Group (MSG) and Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) have established
of attitudes towards negotiations to come? More ominously, precedents recognising the membership of organisations or
might this be suggestive of the reception a newly independent less than fully fledged independent nations – the Front De Lib-
Bougainville might expect? erational De Nationale Kanak Et Solcialiste in the case of the
To be sure, there is no suggestion the silence is motivated MSG, and for the PIF, New Caledonia and French Polynesia.
by any malign intent. Perhaps it is simply diplomatic deco- Making dynamics interesting, for both the MSG and PIF, Papua
rum, observing deference to PNG on what is an “internal” New Guinea is a full member. And for the MSG, there are the
matter for resolution through negotiations between the additional issues of Indonesia being an Associate Member, and
parties in accordance with agreed process. After all – by and the United Liberation Movement for West Papua, an Observer.
large – things have run well since the cessation of hostilities, In this complex milieu, what if a current PIF or MSG member
despite occasional political upheavals. Why say anything that proposes membership for Bougainville? What kind of dynamics
might be misinterpreted and potentially derail all the good and repercussions will be unleashed by such a development?
that has been accomplished? No doubt, much water will pass under the bridge before we
But truth be told, there might be additional considerations come to these issues. But for many in the region, there will
behind this silence. For example, from the perspective of be challenging discussions to be had very soon about bring-
the larger resident powers in the region, the current geopo- ing Bougainville into the Pacific family. While much will hang
litical dynamics and strategic competition loom large. The on discussions between PNG and Bougainville, the success or
emergence of another “micro-state” vulnerable to influence otherwise of these talks will have far-reaching implications
from competitors, is the last thing needed at such a strategic for our region as a whole. It is in the interests of us all to be
juncture. For France, moreover, this kind of example is not invested in these.
exactly helpful, with campaigning well underway in New Cale-
donia for another independence referendum, and simmering editor@islandsbusiness.com
inclinations also in French Polynesia. In this climate, any
comment might be best avoided. Dr Oehlers is a Professor at Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific
It is the silence of Pacific nations, however, that is most Center for Security Studies, Honolulu, Hawaii. The views in
conspicuous and difficult to fathom and reconcile. Is this this article are the personal opinions of the author and are
wholly in deference to PNG? Is this the Pacific Way? But not representative of the United States Government, Depart-
what of the Melanesian connection with Bougainville? Are no ment of Defense, or the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center
expressions of fraternal solidarity permissible? for Security Studies.

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42 Islands Business, September/October 2020