Page 16 - IB JAN 2019

Cover Story - IB’s 2019 Outlook

China is the

superpower

to watch

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison with his wife Jenny during their visit to Fiji
Photo: Department of Information, Fiji
By Samisoni Pareti national Airport, on the west coast of the country’s main island.
As far as many know, that expression of interest from Suva has
FIVE countries and one region are going to the polls this year not been firmed up on paper. The chances for minds to change
to get a fresh and new mandate from their electorate, and while and for China to come in with its counter offers of grants and
this will no doubt provide interesting results, the trend to watch Yuan must be so real to prompt Morrison to take the two island
though in 2019 may be something beyond the result that comes tour in four days in January. In any case, news that Fiji was
out of the ballot box. How China pushes its influence through partnering with Canberra to develop its Black Rock military base
its much touted Belt and Road Initiative through and over the was revealed in an interview by an Australian journalist with a
islands of Oceania is predicted to be the development that will junior Fiji military officer late last year.
keep analysts and commentators busy over the coming months. Given the strong possibility that Morrison and his coalition will
Ramification of the paradigm shift in the world’s geopolitics fall to the Australian Labour Party in their May general elections,
has been felt in some parts of the Pacific very early in 2019. The Canberra was not going to let this opportunity fall through.
region’s first woman leader of an independent state in the Pacific, Chinese interest in establishing a military base in the South
President Hilda Hein of the Marshall Islands narrowly survived Pacific has been reported as a key reason Australia opted to team
a confidence motion against her in her island’s legislature and up with the United States in developing a base on Manus Island
she accused China for influencing her opponents to introduce in PNG. This used to be a navy base for the PNG Defence Force
the motion. The country she leads is one of the five that will be but until a Supreme Court ruling last year, was used as refugee
holding general elections during the year, and for someone who processing centre under Australia’s Pacific Solution initiative.
came into power by default, her bid to win another new term The two countries also teamed up with Japan and New Zealand
from the electorate will be closely followed. to announce a US$1.7 billion energy initiative in PNG during the
January also saw a whirlwind tour of Vanuatu and Fiji by APEC Summit. Many view this as another move to try and ward
Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison. He stayed away from off the growing influence of China which has sunk up to US$200
last year’s Pacific Islands Forum Leaders summit in Nauru, so million worth of rural electrification projects in PNG alone.
the decision to do island hopping intrigued not a few observers 2019 therefore would see China up the ante in the islands of
of regional politics. The disquiet about China’s growing influence the Pacific. The region is no longer a battle ground between China
in the islands, and its championing of its Belt and Road Initiative and Taiwan like it used to be a decade ago. Now it is China and
with millions of Yuan of aid no doubt was one of the factors that the other western powers who used to treat the islands as their
prompted the visit. own backyard.
News that Vanuatu had entered into a $130m aid agreement Interestingly, out of the 5 countries that are holding general
with China during the summit President Xi Jinping held with elections this year, four are aligned with Taiwan and not Beijing.
Pacific Island leaders at the margins of the Asia Pacific Economic Should we expect to hear accusations of interference by China in
Council meeting that Papua New Guinea hosted last November the elections in the referendum in Bougainville, and the elections
no doubt triggered alarm bells in Canberra. Fiji on the other hand in the Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Nauru,
had indicated its willingness to partner with Australia, not Beijing Solomon Islands and Tuvalu? It is hard to say of course but this
in the development of its military training base near Nadi Inter- magazine would not rule it all out in its entirety.

16 Islands Business, January 2019